With just weeks to go until US election, Trump narrowly leads in key battleground states

By Hakan Copur and Servet Gunerigok

WASHINGTON (AA) – With just weeks to go until the Nov. 5 US presidential election, the close race between Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and her Republican rival Donald Trump is heating up, with a number of polls showing Trump in the lead in crucial battleground states.

According to the nationwide poll averages released by RealClearPolitics, Vice President Harris has garnered 49.2% support nationally, putting her ahead of Trump, who has 47.5% support in the same polls.

- Trump slightly ahead in 'swing states'

Although Harris slightly leads in nationwide polls, the results in "swing states" are more crucial due to the US presidential election system, where the candidate with the most electoral votes – not the most popular votes – wins.

According to the average of polls in the seven key swing states, which are vital due to the Electoral College system, Trump leads Harris by 0.7 percentage points.

In the latest polls, Trump holds a 0.3 point lead over Harris in Pennsylvania, 0.7 points in Georgia, 1.1 points in Arizona, 0.5 points in Nevada, 1 point in Michigan, and 1.3 points in North Carolina.

However, Harris leads by 0.3 points in Wisconsin. Notably, in Michigan, where Harris had consistently led, Trump has overtaken her in the past week.

- Harris ahead in nationwide polls

According to the average of 11 current polls, including prominent ones like Reuters, CBS News, Pew, Harvard, and NBC News, Harris is polling at 49.2%, while Trump stands at 47.5%.

In these polls, Reuters shows Harris with 47% support compared to Trump’s 44%, while the Harvard poll reports Harris at 51% and Trump at 49%.

Harris, who was polling nearly the same as Trump in surveys done in late July – when President Joe Biden left the race – has slightly increased her support, particularly among women and Latino voters.

- Projection of likely delegate counts favors Trump

With 538 Electoral College delegates up for grabs and 270 needed to secure the presidency, all eyes are on the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

If current polling trends in these states translate into delegate counts, Trump holds a slight advantage in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, while Harris is slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin.

If Trump wins five of the seven swing states, he is projected to secure 302 delegates, leaving Harris with 236 delegates.

- Betting markets see Trump closer to winning presidential race

According to RealClearPolitics, which tracks betting companies' predictions on the likelihood of candidates winning, the average shows Trump is currently favored in the presidential race.

RealClearPolitics, sharing data from seven companies – Polymarket, Smarkets, Points Bet, Bwin, Bovada, Betsson, and Betfair – estimates Trump's chances of winning at 56.3%, compared to 42.6% for Harris.

All of these betting companies predict Trump’s chances of winning at 55% or higher.

- Muslim voters' reaction to US' Gaza policy

Polls across the country indicate that inflation, economic issues, the abortion debate, and border security are top concerns for voters. However, US policy on Gaza has emerged as a particularly salient issue for many Americans.

Michigan, home to a large population of Muslims and Arabs, is a critical state where this foreign policy issue may significantly impact voter sentiment, especially with its 15 delegates.

Also, 13% of "uncommitted" votes were cast in the state's primaries in February, largely in response to widespread criticism of President Joe Biden's Gaza policy.

Many of these voters, who have been vocal as opposition Democrats, expressed their discontent with the Democratic Biden administration for its unconditional support for Israel. Despite this criticism, they also said that they do not view Trump as a viable alternative.