WTO says global trade to recover in H2 amid high uncertainty

By Tuba Ongun

Global merchandise trade volume will gradually recover in the second half of 2023 with the backing of automobile sales and production, and electronic components, amid high uncertainty, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said.

The WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer, a real-time trend gauge for trade, exceeded the baseline value of 100, hitting 100.7 in September, up from 99.1 in August.

"This suggests that merchandise trade volume will gradually revert towards its medium-term trend in the second half of 2023, although uncertainty remains high due to mixed economic data and rising geopolitical tensions," read the report from WTO on Monday.

World merchandise trade volume was increased 0.2% from the previous period in the second quarter of 2023, but still down 0.5% year-on-year.

The figure for the third quarter is expected to come in slightly stronger thanks to accelerating GDP growth in the US and China, albeit the EU economy stagnated.

Annual trade growth is likely to be strong in the fourth quarter due to the base effect as high energy prices, rising interest rates and pandemic-related disruptions weighed on economic growth in leading economies in the same period last year.