Year of global elections: Experts warn AI-generated content becoming greater risk to democratic processes

By Nuran Erkul

LONDON (AA) – With several countries around the world set for key elections this year and the next, global risk experts, as well as business and government leaders, are increasingly worried about how synthetic content generated by artificial intelligence and related technologies could manipulate the democratic process.

Another fear is that these issues are likely to continue in the longer term as the technologies are developing more rapidly than the legislative actions needed to tackle the related risks.

Misinformation and disinformation are the biggest short-term risks, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024, produced in partnership with Zurich Insurance Group and Marsh McLennan, a leading professional services firm in risk and strategy.

The report draws on views from 1,400 global risks experts, policymakers and industry leaders.

“In the two-year time horizon, misinformation and disinformation fears are the number one risk, and these concerns are genuinely new. The reason for that is generative AI that we see every day on the news and articles,” John Scott, head of sustainability risk at Zurich Insurance Group, told Anadolu on the sidelines of the report’s launch.

“We are all aware that this could also be manipulated domestically and internationally by people who want to give false information to manipulate the democratic processes, because this year and next year, so many democracies are going to the polls and there is a real concern that there may be misinformation or influence on the results of elections.”

Around half of the world’s population, 4 billion people, will go to the polls this year, which is being seen as the biggest year of elections in history.

More than 50 countries, including the US, Russia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Taiwan, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa, will hold elections. The UK is also expected to have general elections in the second half of this year.

Carolina Klint, chief commercial officer for Europe at Marsh McLennan, echoed the same views about misinformation and disinformation being a front and central risk ahead of the upcoming elections in major economies.

“But on the other end, I think we have only started seeing the way that AI impacts how we create and distribute synthetic content,” she told Anadolu.

“I believe that it is going to be a risk for the future as well and maybe even more so when we start seeing some of the election results, whether they are going to get questioned due to the proliferation of AI-fueled misinformation and disinformation.”

- No country can address global risks alone

In the longer term, misinformation and disinformation are a part of broader set of technology-related risks, according to Scott.

Governments need to resolve what to do about AI and technology governance over the long term, he said.

“There are also ever-present risks of cybersecurity. We are so dependent on computer-generated systems and governments are aware of all these,” he said.

“Some are trying watermarking the content of AI. So, if you read something or watch a video that has sort of watermark, it says this has been approved and is not fake,” he explained.

However, it is easy to fake those kinds of measures as well, Scott added.

According to Klint, there is increased awareness among countries, with watermarking one way to go, while other steps could be like the EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act.

“But again, it is a question of whether or not it is going to be current by the time it comes into force … because the development of (technology) is moving so quickly and maybe it will be outdated once it is taken into force,” she said.

So, it is going to be difficult for governments to address these issues in a fractured, fast-changing world, Scott said.

That means the normal sort of global or international cooperation between countries is not working as it was in the past and it is difficult to create global agreement on such issues, according to him.

Due to the divergence among countries, the problem with any grand agreement at the international level to address these issues is how to actually deliver in practice, Scott said.

“That is the complexity facing the political leaders around the world,” he said.

Klint stressed the need for collaboration, warning that no country or stakeholder can solve these cyber or environmental risks alone.

“I am really hopeful that world leaders and senior business leaders come together in Davos next week … to look at the risks of this year’s global risk report and spend time on really thinking about areas and opportunities for collaboration,” she said.

This year’s World Economic Forum will be held in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 15-19 with the theme of ‘Rebuilding Trust,’ bringing together more than 2,800 delegates from 120 countries.​​​​​​​