2+2 ministerial dialogue crucial for India-US ties amid Ukraine war: Experts

By Ahmad Adil

NEW DELHI (AA) – As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Joe Biden hold a virtual meeting on Monday ahead of India-US 2+2 ministerial meeting, experts say the dialogue offers an important opportunity for the two countries to reduce "tensions" that have emerged due to India’s stance on the Russian war in Ukraine.

According to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, the two leaders "will review ongoing bilateral cooperation and exchange views on recent developments in South Asia, the Indo-Pacific region, and global issues of mutual interest."

"The virtual meeting will enable both sides to continue their regular and high-level engagement aimed at further strengthening the bilateral comprehensive global strategic partnership," the ministry said.

The interaction will precede the fourth India-US 2+2 ministerial meeting between Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

Frank O’Donnell, Deputy Director of South Asia Program of Washington-based Stimson Center think tank, told Anadolu Agency that this "dialogue offers a crucial opportunity for the US and India to reduce the bilateral tensions which have emerged due to India’s persistently cautious diplomatic stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine."

India is a historical ally of Russia but of late has been growing closer to Washington. Since Russia declared war on Ukraine in February, India has called for a peaceful solution to the crisis but has refrained from openly criticizing Russia.

- Indian reliance on Russian arms

Frank said that during the dialogue "there are likely to be candid discussions about Indian caution being partly driven by up to 85% of its military major platforms being of Russian origin, and India’s need to ensure continued access to necessary supplies for these platforms, which could be endangered by the Russian reaction to a tougher Indian stance against it on Ukraine."

"This crisis creates an opportunity for India to begin significantly reducing this military reliance upon Russia, as the US has recently said it is willing to support India in sourcing alternative military platforms, either directly from the US or from other US partners," he said.

Differences between the US and India on the Ukraine war are already out in the open.

US President Joe Biden last month said that India, despite being a member of the Washington-led Quad group, is "somewhat shaky" in acting against Russia.

Subsequently, Daleep Singh, the US deputy national security adviser for international economics, on his official visit to India, in a tough message, cautioned New Delhi against "rapid acceleration" in trade deals with Russia. India, in return, has said it will continue to buy cheap oil from Russia at a discounted price.

Sameer Patil, a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think tank, told Anadolu Agency that the dialogue this time between the two countries is certainly important given that it maintains the contact between the political executives.

"This mechanism has proved useful particularly during the pandemic period when India-US summits could not take place. Now if you look at the situation in Ukraine, I think this mechanism will help convey both partners’ points of view across and see how they can work together," he said.

- Change in position unlikely

Even though talks between the two countries are on, experts said India is unlikely to change its Ukraine stance.

Frank said while there has been "a subtle shift in Indian diplomatic language" following the revelations of civilian killings in Ukraine's Bucha city, the "Indian language and votes on the overall war aside from these incidents is likely to remain the same."

"Nevertheless, India is beginning to take the long-term steps, especially in terms of sourcing military platforms, that will reduce the defense reliance on Russia that New Delhi has historically cited as a major reason for its traditional diplomatic caution with Moscow," he said.

As per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a leading think tank, Indian arms imports decreased by 21% between 2012-16 and 2017-21. According to the institute, Russia's arms exports to India fell from 69% in 2012-17 to 46% in 2017-21.

Stating that there is a risk that the Indian military and other commerce with Russia could be subject to "new US sanctions against Russia", Frank maintained: "Washington has been stating that the new Russian demands for replenishing equipment and supplies expended in Ukraine will likely lead to interruptions in these crucial supplies for India, again underlining the unreliability of Russia as a major defense partner for India."

Sameer also echoes the view. "The US can certainly use the threat of sanctions to change Indian position. But I also feel that this approach has its limitations as India is unlikely to change its position," he said.

He also added that if the US slaps India with sanctions it will also damage the bilateral relations and "set it back by decades and rekindle suspicions about the US intentions in some quarters in India."