Fitch upgrades Türkiye's medium-term growth forecast to 4.1%

By Tuba Ongun

Fitch Ratings has revised its medium-term growth forecast for Türkiye upward to 4.1% from 3.9%, according to a report released on Friday.

"Fitch Ratings has reduced its estimate of medium-term potential growth for the 10 emerging markets (EM) covered in its Global Economic Outlook to 4.0% on a GDP weighted-average basis," it said in the report titled Potential Growth in Emerging Markets Weakens as China's Economy Slows.

This was down from 4.3% in its previous forecast in 2021.

"The reduction is mainly due to a large reduction of 0.7 percentage points to the estimate of China’s supply-side growth potential," it noted.

The growth estimate for China was revised down to 4.6% from 5.3% and for Russia to 0.8% from 1.6%.

The agency upgraded India and Mexico's GDP growth forecast significantly to 6.2% and 2%, respectively.

The latest estimates were below its pre-pandemic potential growth projections for all the ten emerging markets except Brazil and Poland, the agency said, adding: "This reflects deteriorating demographic trends and the legacy of disruptions from the pandemic."