Future of sports officiating: Will AI replace human referees?

By Sumeyye Eryilmaz

ISTANBUL (AA) — From goal-line technology to video assistant referee (VAR) systems, artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly central in sports officiating, transforming the way referees make decisions.

Fast-paced matches have often led to controversial refereeing moments by human officiators, potentially shaping entire competitions.

In 2009, Thierry Henry’s unnoticed handball helped France eliminate Ireland from qualifying for the 2010 World Cup, fueling demands for video-assisted officiating.

But it was Frank Lampard’s infamous "ghost goal" against Germany in the same World Cup that proved the tipping point for goal-line technology. Despite the ball comfortably crossing the line, officials missed the call, pushing previously skeptical football authorities to embrace new technology.

The change made its way into the Laws of the Game in 2012, when the International Football Association Board (IFAB) established a certification process to ensure the quality of goal-line technology systems used in official games.

Outside the goalpost, semi-automated offside technology (SAOT) debuted in the 2022 FIFA World Cup, aiming to reduce errors and speed up decisions. The system used AI-driven tracking to deliver faster and more precise offside calls, enhancing fairness and accuracy in the game.

But technology's growing role wasn't limited to football.

Hawk-Eye, a goal-line tech provider that has been used in FIFA matches as well, was first introduced in tennis in the 2000s. Today, it has widely replaced line judges in the sport, offering precise ball tracking through multiple cameras and real-time 3D analysis for accurate officiating.

Meanwhile in basketball, AI-powered cameras have been used to assist referees catch out-of-bounds plays and track player movements.

Such systems have helped speed up decision-making, reducing delays and improving the overall flow of the game.

But while human referees are still the top authority on the field and court, the question looms of whether AI could replace them altogether, or if both will have a role in the future of officiating.

- When AI gets it wrong

Despite the ground it's gained, AI-assisted decision-making in sports has also had its setbacks.

A 2020 Premier League match between Sheffield United and Aston Villa saw a clear goal wrongly disallowed — not by human error, but by a failure of goal-line technology.

Hawk-Eye, the system provider, later admitted the mistake, calling it an anomaly after more than 9,000 matches without incident.

Similar controversy arose in the opening match of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, when Ecuador’s Enner Valencia had a goal ruled out by SAOT.

The decision sparked debate over whether the system’s centimeter-level precision was too strict for the game’s fast-paced nature.

While AI excels in objective calls like offsides and goal-line rulings, experts argue that it struggles with subjective decisions — an area where human judgment remains crucial.

Where AI is going to struggle with, at least for now, are the subjective decisions, said John Eric Goff, a physics professor at the University of Lynchburg in Virginia.

- A hybrid future?

Rather than replacing referees entirely, experts predict a future where AI works alongside them.

“I don't think we're at the stage anywhere near yet where you're going to have some robot moving around a field,” Goff said.

A hybrid model would allow AI to handle objective aspects — like offside calls and ball tracking — while referees retain control over judgment-based decisions, such as fouls and penalties.

But fan skepticism remains an obstacle to widespread acceptance. According to Goff many fans are "struggling with some of the new VAR-assisted … technologies where the AI is used because they don't think it's always accurate."

Still, he believes AI’s role in sports officiating will only expand. “They’re going to have to get comfortable with the idea that humans are not going to be making certain decisions into the future,” he said, adding that full acceptance depends on how fans react.

Goff also pointed to the challenge of determining intent, something AI has yet to master.

"Is there a penalty? Is there some kind of player intent that has to be judged often? That is going to be a human decision. The algorithms aren't there yet to try to read facial expressions or see what the hand is doing or anything like that," Goff told Anadolu in a video interview.

- AI as a tool, not a replacement

Beyond sports, AI-driven automation is raising concerns about job displacement. Referees, like many professionals, face uncertainty about their roles as technology advances.

Goff sees the issue as part of a broader trend affecting multiple industries, from truck driving to retail. “Then the question is … what do we do with the people?” he said. “What are going to be their jobs of the future?”

When it comes to sports, Goff remains hopeful that human referees won’t become obsolete. “You'd like to think there's still going to be referees around,” he said.