Global warming 80% likely to temporarily exceed 1.5 C in next 5 years: WMO

By Beyza Binnur Donmez

GENEVA (AA) - A new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Tuesday indicated that the planet's annual average temperature is 80% likely to temporarily exceed the 1.5 C threshold above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.

The global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1 C and 1.9 C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline, said the UN weather agency's report.

Temperatures in at least one of these years will probably set a new record, beating 2023, currently the warmest year on record, the report underlined.

It said there was a 47% chance that the global temperature average over the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5 C above the pre-industrial era, an increase from 32% from last year’s report for 2023-2027.

The global average near-surface temperature was about 1.45 C in 2023, according to WMO. Last year's record-high temperatures were fueled by long-term climate warming, combined with other factors, most notably a naturally occurring El Nino weather event, which is now waning.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, states committed to keeping the long-term global average surface temperature well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 C by the end of this century.

The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5 C risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather events.