OPINION - Trump's ballot battle: Legal showdown with broader implications for democracy

By Cagdas Yuksel

-The author is a researcher at TRT World Research Center

ISTANBUL (AA) - The Colorado Supreme Court ruled on Dec. 19 that former President Donald Trump cannot run in the state's Republican Party primaries to seek a return to the White House. The court decided to remove Trump's name from the ballot in the state of Colorado, as he aims to first become the Republican Party's presidential candidate and then seek another term as US president on Nov. 5, 2024. The decision, made by a 4-3 vote, cited the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution as the rationale.

Section 3 [1] of that amendment lays out that any state or federal official who has taken an oath to uphold the Constitution cannot "engage in insurrection or rebellion against the state," and that if they break this oath, they are banned from holding office ever again. The Colorado Supreme Court has postponed implementation of the decision until next month, when an appeal hearing is expected.

It is anticipated that Trump will appeal this decision to the US Supreme Court, where the final verdict is expected to be delivered.

- More court cases likely

Colorado is currently a state where Democrats are almost certain to win. The last time Republicans won the state was in 2000, with George W. Bush. Democrats have emerged victorious in Colorado's last four presidential elections. The primary danger for the former president, who is currently entangled in numerous legal battles, lies in the prospects of more court cases following Colorado's lead – as Maine did just days later – and Trump’s exclusion from the states he needs to win back the presidency.

For the first time in the US, a decision has been made about this article of the Constitution, which involves removing from the ballot the name of a candidate who wants to compete in presidential elections. Setting such a precedent could open a can of worms for the country's democracy moving forward.

The former president and his loyal supporters claim that these cases are plots by a “deep-state” structure to prevent Trump from returning to power because his policies disturbed [2] “globalists.”

During his tenure, Trump adopted an approach that diverged from traditional Republican standards. Trump's "America First" principle not only strained relations with US allies but also played a decisive role in shaping domestic policies by repeatedly challenging the limits of executive authority and often standing against the federal judiciary. He embraced a transactional foreign policy that aimed to achieve direct, short-term, and clear results, without concerning himself with Washington’s global role.

As a result, Trump led the country toward more isolation, eroding its role as a global leader. His decisions concerning the NATO alliance [3], NAFTA trade deal [4], Paris climate change agreement [5], and the Trans-Pacific Partnership [6] are all cases in point.

Additionally, Trump promised that when American companies close production US facilities, lay off American workers, and relocate operations abroad, products they try to sell back to US markets would be subject to a 35% tax [7]. These decisions soured his relations with many major companies, including United Technologies, General Motors, and Ford.

Many see a correlation between Trump's legal processes and the policies he pursued during his presidency, which did not please influential stakeholders. Rather than being a "president trampling on the law," as implied by the decision of the Colorado Supreme Court, Trump is seen as someone who, due to his policies, is opposed by a deep-state structure. The latter used allegations of interference in the 2020 elections to prevent his return to the presidency.

- The victim card

However, the attempts to coerce him legally and shut him down electorally seem to have backfired. Trump is currently the strongest candidate. His most significant strategy is playing the victim card, and the victimhood strategy is very potent [8] and serves to counteracts any blame directed against him.

Consequently, Trump has more support than all other Republican candidates together. According to 538.com's [9] average of national polls, as of Dec. 15, Trump led the primary race with 61%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley are virtually tied for second place at 12% and 11%, respectively.

In a scenario where he would compete against Biden, many polls see Trump as the winner. According to the latest Wall Street Journal poll [10], the former president has 47% support, versus 43% for Biden.

In the context of Section 3 of the amendment cited by the Colorado Supreme Court, Trump is associated with the Jan. 6 insurrection. Evaluating the situation within the framework of Trump's strong public support, it becomes clear that prosecuting Trump for the Jan. 6 incident will not lead to a consensus in the public or among Trump's supporters.

In an analysis [11] of the Jan. 6 Capitol protests, I examined 241 Facebook posts from Trump's account and 150 posts from Biden's. When scrutinizing the social media posts through the lens of situational crisis communication theory (SCCT) theory, I observed that Trump truly believed the election results were fraudulent. Still, at the same time, it is evident, under a theory championed by W. Timothy Coombs, a professor of communication and journalist at Texas A&M University, that he did not manage the crisis effectively.

However, the prevailing belief is that the former president was subjected to injustice. The biggest challenge to win over Trump’s constituency is to prove that there was no election fraud in the 2019 elections, and then only judge Trump's role three years ago.

A swift trial and conviction of Trump in the short term will only fuel apprehension among his constituency. Targeting a leader who has established such a strong base through a series of pre-election court processes can cause serious damage to American democracy. The bond between Trump and his supporters goes beyond typical political reasons such as ideological beliefs or grand economic plans; his supporters have established a deep emotional connection with their leader.

Thus, the way to minimize the damage to American democracy is not through court processes preventing Trump from entering the election but rather through Democrats fielding a candidate who can win.

[1] https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxiv

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/sep/24/donald-trump-un-address-denounces-globalism

[3] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/energy-diplomacy/trump-nato-allies-owe-us-massive-amounts-of-money-/2256

[4] https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/01/politics/usmca-nafta-replacement-trump/index.html

[5] https://2017-2021.state.gov/on-the-u-s-withdrawal-from-the-paris-agreement/

[6] https://money.cnn.com/2017/01/23/news/economy/tpp-trump-china/

[7] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tax-border-idUSKBN14T2GB/

[8] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022103110002805

[9] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

[10] https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-takes-2024-lead-as-biden-approval-hits-new-low-wsj-poll-finds-fb4fca0c

[11] https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/featured/trump-guilty-or-victim-of-the-crisis/

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.